The number of COVID-19 infections has been dropping rapidly, and the vaccines are working far better than anyone expected.
Though some observers are predicting another surge, due to the new variants, another expert says that the disease might be defeated by April. So in a few weeks, we should be able to see who is right. But here are some reasons to think that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel:
Marty Makary, a med school professor at Johns Hopkins, notes that the number of COVID-19 cases has dropped by 77% over the last six weeks. “If a medication slashed cases by 77%,” he says, “we’d call it a miracle pill.” He believes that since the virus can spread without creating symptoms, far more Americans have been infected than the statistics on confirmed cases show. He calculates that about 55% of Americans have already been infected and have acquired natural immunity. Add in the 15% of the population that have been vaccinated so far, and that gets us to the threshold for herd immunity.
“At the current trajectory,” he writes, “I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”
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